2026 plan

The year ahead at NAPL.

A realistic plan for a small lab: four quarterly themes, four running programmes, and a limited number of closed-door briefings.

Quarterly themes

A year in four movements.

●Annual East Asia Outlook (short-form report, January, sent to all long-term clients).
●Cross-Strait scenario refresh through 2028 — four pathways, one page each.
●Update our internal dataset on US–Japan–Taiwan–China trade & tech flows.

●Policy note: 'Export Controls 2.0' and its practical impact on European industry.
●Two client briefings on Japan's economic security legislation, two years in.
●Short field trip to Tokyo — meetings with correspondents and industry contacts.

●Policy note: extended deterrence and the US–Japan alliance after the 2027 NDS.
●Scenario workshop with two European corporate clients on Taiwan-contingency risk.
●Client memos on Japan–Taiwan unofficial security cooperation.

●Policy note on renminbi internationalisation and regional financial stability.
●Beijing-watching dossier: PRC's 15th Five-Year Plan and external economic posture.
●Year-end closed-door client dinner in London.

Running programmes

Allied Semiconductor Policy Tracker

Geo-economics Desk

1 policy note · 4 client memos

Cross-Strait Watch

Politics & Diplomacy Desk

1 scenario note · 6 commentaries

East Asia Quarterly Assessment

Project Lead (R. Ziemann)

4 quarterly assessments · monthly memos

European Firms in China Risk Series

Client Advisory

3 bespoke risk memos · 2 briefings

Briefings

Held online or in London for 10–20 senior participants.

Online · Feb

East Asia 2026 outlook for European corporates

London · Apr

Allied semiconductor export controls — practical Q&A

Online · Jun

Taiwan Strait risk for investment committees

London · Sep

Japan's economic security regime, two years in

Online · Oct

Renminbi and trade settlement — signal vs. substance

London · Dec

Year-end East Asia dinner (invitation only)