NorthRiverAsia
NorthRiverAsia
Indo-Pacific Strategic Research
2026 Research Agenda

The year ahead at NorthRiverAsia.

The 2026 plan organises our work into four quarterly themes and four flagship multi-year programmes. It is reviewed by the Executive Committee each quarter and updated as regional developments require.

Quarterly Themes

A year in four movements.

Q1

Baseline & Scenarios

  • ●Annual Indo-Pacific Strategic Outlook (flagship report, January launch in London).
  • ●Cross-Strait scenario refresh: four pathways through the 2028 horizon.
  • ●Baseline dataset published: US–Japan–Taiwan–China bilateral trade & technology flows, 2015–2025.
Q2

Technology Statecraft

  • ●Flagship study — 'Allied Technology Statecraft: Export Controls 2.0' (joint with Tokyo office).
  • ●Closed-door Track 1.5 in The Hague on multilateral semiconductor licensing.
  • ●Working paper series: Japan's economic security legislation, two years on.
Q3

Security & Deterrence

  • ●Tabletop exercise (Washington): Taiwan contingency and allied logistics.
  • ●Policy brief series: extended deterrence and the US–Japan alliance after the 2027 NDS.
  • ●Field research mission: Northeast Asia maritime grey-zone tracking.
Q4

Economy, Finance & Outlook

  • ●Annual study on renminbi internationalisation and Asia-Pacific financial stability.
  • ●Beijing-watching dossier: PRC's 15th Five-Year Plan and external economic posture.
  • ●Year-end NorthRiverAsia Forum (London): two-day public conference with partner institutions.
Flagship Programmes

Four multi-year commitments.

Allied Technology Statecraft Programme
IPE & Supply Chains Dept.
1 flagship study · 4 briefs · 2 dialogues
Cross-Strait Stability Project
East Asian Politics & Security Dept.
1 scenario report · 6 commentaries · 1 tabletop
Indo-Pacific Risk Index
Strategic Intelligence & Risk Assessment Dept.
Quarterly index · monthly client memos
Japan 'Normal Nation' Initiative
Tokyo Liaison Office
3 working papers · 1 joint study with NIDS
Convening

12 closed-door dialogues planned in 2026.

London · Mar
Allied semiconductor export controls
Tokyo · May
Japan–Taiwan unofficial security dialogue
Washington · Jun
Extended deterrence roundtable
The Hague · Sep
Multilateral technology licensing
Singapore · Oct
ASEAN minilaterals & supply chains
London · Dec
NorthRiverAsia Annual Forum (public)