Research & Advisory

Three lines of work. Four capitals. One region.

Our output is deliberately narrow — three areas we know well, focused on the strategic quadrangle of the United States, Japan, Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.

Regional Politics & Diplomacy

We track US–China dynamics and their spill-over into European and Asia-Pacific policy, Japan's fine-grained shifts on China and Taiwan, and the political dimensions of Taiwan's role in regional security.

Workstreams

▸US–China strategic competition and European spill-overs
▸Japan's China and Taiwan policy at the working level
▸Taiwan Strait risk and cross-Strait politics
▸Korean Peninsula and Japan–ROK relations

Geo-economics & Supply Chains

We follow the mechanics of US–Japan 'de-risking' toward China, the practical impact of TSMC and allied semiconductor policy on European companies, and the shifting roles of the dollar, yen and renminbi in regional trade and finance.

Workstreams

▸US–Japan technology and supply-chain 'de-risking'
▸TSMC, allied semiconductor policy and European industry
▸Sanctions, export controls and secondary effects on the EU
▸Currency dynamics: USD, JPY and RMB in East Asia

III

Risk Advisory & Briefings

For a small number of European clients we produce tailored China and Taiwan policy risk memos, quarterly East Asia assessments, and closed-door online briefings for management teams and investment committees.

Workstreams

▸Bespoke China / Taiwan policy risk memos
▸Quarterly East Asia assessment (Taiwan Strait, Japan, Korea)
▸Closed-door online briefings (10–20 participants)
▸Scenario workshops for boards and investment committees

Recent output

A selection from 2026.

Client Memo

Export Controls 2.0: What the Next US–Japan Package Means for European OEMs

Nov 2026

Policy Note

Taiwan Through 2028: Deterrence, Ambiguity and the Silicon Shield

Oct 2026

Quarterly

East Asia Q4 2026 — Taiwan Strait, Japan–ROK and Peninsula Risk

Oct 2026

Client Memo

Japan's Economic Security Act, Two Years On: Practical Impact on EU Firms

Sep 2026

Policy Note

Renminbi in Regional Trade Settlement — Signal vs. Substance

Aug 2026

Commentary

Why the Next EU–China Trade Cycle Runs Through Tokyo

Jul 2026

Most memos are delivered under client confidentiality and not listed here.